In the last Gold Elliott wave intraday analysis, we did mention how far we expect the intraday bearish trend to continue. We pointed to the opportunity of selling the breakout of a triangle pattern. We noted that price, after the breakout downside, is expected to reach 1180 and 1155. How far has price gone after the breakout and what more should we expect? And is price ready for a correction or reversal upside?
21 November, AtoZForex – The chart below was used for the last update we did on the intraday Gold Elliott wave analysis. We noted an impulse wave decline as price broke below in a high momentum after a sharp recovery form the US elections bullish spike.
Intraday Gold Elliott wave analysis H2 chart (click to zoom)
Gold Elliott wave intraday analysis
Price continued the congestion briefly afterwards (but still contained within the triangle frame) before broken downside. The break below 1215.7 presented a good bearish opportunity and immediately gave 150 pips before the close of trading activities last week.
With price returning to the breakout point of this triangle with another seeming congestion, should we say the bullish correction is ready to take off?
Intraday Gold Elliott wave analysis H1 chart (click to zoom)
The 1 hour chart of Gold above shows that price is going through another congestion. We can label this congestion as the sub-wave iv of the 5th wave of this trend. The 4th wave of the trend will then have ended at 1232.
The sub-wave iv could be a triangle pattern- a barrier triangle or rising triangle as shown in the 15 minute chart below.
Intraday Gold Elliott wave analysis M15 chart (click to zoom)
If this pattern completes as the forecast above shows, then a break below will be expected to lead us to 1180-1155.
Alternative Elliott wave intraday view
If the triangle pattern in the chart above is invalidated above 1217, then the 15 minutes chart below shows the alternative idea which also supports the bearish continuation.
Intraday Gold Elliott wave analysis M15 chart (click to zoom)
The chart above shows that a further rally will mean that the triangle we discussed in the last update ended at 1232.65. The recent rally is now interpreted as the 2nd sub-wave of the 5th wave. The rally could get to 1219-1222.65 before the bearish move continues.
Where will the Gold intraday bullish correction start?
We will only consider that the big bullish correction has started if price breaks above 1232. 1232 is the price at which the two scenarios we showed will be invalid.
In conclusion, the break above 1232 will open a new opportunity for bullish trades. We consider this level as the turning point; otherwise, the two bearish pattern set-ups should be watched closely.
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Do you have other views in contrast to the ones listed or you want to compliment them further? let's know by your comment below.
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