This Friday at 1330 GMT the eagerly expected February NFP report is scheduled to be released. The market is anticipating a reading of 197k, while the unemployment rate is expected to slip further to 4.7% from 4.8%, and earnings growth is set to surge 2.7%. Check the Major banks NFP Preview
10 March, AtoZForex – Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) deals with the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming sector. The job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most economical movement. Expectations for an even higher NFP number have been stoked by an extremely strong ADP report for February, which measures private sector payrolls in the US. If the NFP comes anywhere near this level then it will virtually solidify expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week.
Major banks NFP Preview
Analysts from Danske Bank, estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 190K in February.
“We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 190,000 in February in line with the recent trend and in line with the consensus. We estimate private services was the main contributor to job growth with 160,000 new jobs but we also expect the progress in manufacturing employment observed during the last two months continued in February, with an increase in manufacturing employment of 20,000 as manufacturing activity indicators continue to point towards progress.”
Nonfarm payroll expectations from Barclays:
”For the February employment report, we look for nonfarm payrolls to increase 200k, all of which we expect to come at the private sector level. Initial and continuing jobless claims have continued to trend lower, bolstering our confidence that labor demand remains solid. However, over the past few months, the relationship between claims and employment has weakened and we chose to take less signal from the low level than we have in the past.”
Other major banks NFPs estimates:
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch 185K
- BNP 185K
- Goldman Sachs 215K
- Morgan Stanley 250K
- Nomura 235K
- Westpac 170K
Strong NFP report yet a muted USD reaction
If we get a good jobs number on Friday then the dollar reaction is worth watching. Moreover, the sell-off on any spike higher in the dollar, as the market positioned for a Fed rate hike. A weaker than expected reading would likely to trigger the biggest market reaction and a surge in volatility.
How to trade currency pairs?
AtoZForex.com market analyst, Oluranti Owolewa shared his USDJPY analysis ahead of the NFP data:
The total amount of payroll growth will be important but revisions to past reports, average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate and the labor participation rate are all significant. If average hourly earnings rise less than expected or the unemployment rate holds steady, any initial dollar rally on the back of greater job growth could fade quickly. However, if every part of the release beats, USDJPY will probably race above 116 or even take a crack at 116.50.
Alongside, AtoZForex.com market analyst, Ayodeji also shared his analysis and levels for USDCAD and NZDUSD. Continue reading his analyses and found out about the key levels for USDCAD and NZDUSD.
Think we missed something? Let us know in the comments section below.