It’s a busy day with the US economic data in the hours ahead. Janet Yellen has thrown out few surprises in terms of her maintaining the hawkish stance over interest rates in her Senate testimony. Hence, find out what you can expect from STO’s US CPI and retail sales preview.
15 February, STO – The overall market expectations are that the CPI and retail sales prints at 1.30pm GMT will both come in largely as expected. However we have seen some notable moves on pairs like USDJPY and EURUSD in recent days, all in favour of the greenback, so any surprise shortfall in today’s prints could pave the way for a series of reversions.
EURJPY eyeing higher break
Other pairs of interest are EURJPY and AUDUSD. At the moment EURJPY is trending higher. Hence, a breakout may follow. Although, Eurozone political risk remains an overhang. Look for resistance at 122.45 and 123.20, support at 120.30 and 119.40.
Ascending triangle for AUD/USD remains intact with resistance being found repeatedly around the 0.7700 level. Break higher would target 12 month highs around 0.7850.
What about oil prices?
US crude is holding close to one month lows in the wake of yesterday’s release of inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute. The adherence of OPEC members to the recent quota cuts is providing a great opportunity for US shale oil producers to exploit. With production via this method now heading towards a reported 5 million bpd.
News like this is certainly going to keep downside pressure on prices. Whereas, the expectation is that another build in crude inventories will be posted this afternoon. Assuming there are no surprises here then prices could well be bid lower in the near term – it’s difficult to see Opec as willing to continue handing market share to the US shale producers on a long-term basis.
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