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Wednesday 1 March Day Close Analysis: Markets March On Trump address
02/03/2017
Wednesday 1 March Day Close Analysis: Markets March On Trump address

Wednesday 1 March Day close analysis, wow what a day for the markets as Equities march on after President Trumps address to the nation yesterday.    Dow breaks through 21000 barrier , what next?  Greenback bulls in control as Gold declines?

AtoZForex, 1 March –  March commences with a bang as we see all time highs after the key note speech from President Trump.  President Trump absolutely nothing that was already not known and clearly see a divided Congress, with many Republicans also quietly concerned at the lack of details.

It is clear the rate of pushing election promises will encounter a number of speed bumps. Tax policy details cannot be diclosed until cost of repealing and replacing Obamacare is not known.  Currently, trade cautiously, as there are still many unanswered questions.

Wednesday 1 March Day Close Analysis

EURUSD Day Close Analysis

The EUR breached the 1.0535 level touch a low of 1.0505 before bouncing strongly to close at 1.0546 level just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone. Trading bias on the daily time frames remains on the bearish side.

Current status from a technical perspective
With price trading in a range between 1.0632 and 1.0492 for the last eight (8) days, we can expect a break below the 1.0492 level in the coming days. From the indicators perspective very little change from yesterday. Both the daily 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma below the 100sma.

EU_D1_EOD_010317

Day Close for EURUSD D1 (click to zoom in)

Hourly Chart
Moving Averages
 – Both the 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma below the 100sma.
MACD –MACD histogram and signal line are below the neutral line
RSI – RSI is below the 50 level.
Key levels – As mentioned yesterday, the failure of the EUR to cleanly break through the 1.0630 psychological level just below the 76.4% Fibonacci, meant a possible shift to the bearish side. Price fell to touch a level of 1.0514 before rebounding towards the 1.0571 level (just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. A clear break below the 1.0492 level at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone but we lean on the bearish side. 

GBPUSD Day Close Analysis

The GBP closed negatively for the fourth day running. The pair broke through the trading range between the two 23.6% and 50% custom Fibonacci retracement zones, towards the downside. This was primarily due to the Trump address to the nation yesterday. The overall bias remains on the bearish side.

Current status from a technical perspective
With price now testing the custom 61.8% Fibonaaci zone, we could see GBP react in one of two ways.
1) Price respects this level and move to the upside to test the 1.2400 level before resuming its downward path.
2) Price continues to the downside to the strong support level of 1.2090 level. A move to the 1.1985 can notbe ruled out. On the Daily chart both the daily 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma above the 100sma. Price is is below the two moving averages.

Wednesday 1 March Day Close Analysis: Markets March On Trump address

Day Close for GBPUSD D1 (click to zoom in) 

On the Daily chart both the daily 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma above the 100sma. Price is is below the two moving averages.

Hourly Chart
Moving Averages
 – Both the 20sma and 100sma are sloping down. The 20sma is below the 100sma
MACD – MACD histogram and signal line are below the neutral level
RSI – RSI is below the 40 level 
Key levels –  Price Action is still choppy overall for this pair, bias remains bearish at the time of writing with a small correction expected. 

 Impact of Trump Speech

The impact was positive as investors moved the markets to new highs. The US dollar also appreciated against the major currencies, the DJIA broke through the 21000 level.  The impact on EURUSD and GBPUSD was negative as the USD continues to strengthened. Very little has changed since yesterday.

Please use correct risk and money management in line with your account size and draw down plan. These are not recommendations, you must carry out your own due diligence. 

Think we missed something? Let us know in the comments section below.

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