SuperForex Market analysis
Tagged: forex bonus account
December 23, 2016 at 6:21 pm #29747
GBP/AUD & the Expected Explosion
We have a rule on the Forex market that says that after any isolation comes an explosion in prices – either up or down – and many traders always search for isolation areas and wait for the price to break this area to enter the market.
The GBP/AUD currency pair has been trading within a tight trading area between 1.6827 and 1.7152 for a month. We saw the current account from the UK which came this morning in positive figures at -25.5B compared with the previous one at -28.7B and most of the news released in the past few days came in positive. This means the GBP currency is still steady against the AUD at 1.7026 at this moment and we see the pair touching the SMA 50 which represents a support area for the pair.
If we drew the Fibonacci retracement from 1.7796 to 1.7560 we will see the pair is trading around 61.8% which is telling us the pair will decline in the next few days but we have the wait for the breaking down the referred area on the chart below.
The turbo trend indicator in the middle window gave us a brown color signal, so we can expect the pair to start a down wave, and the RSI indicator confirmed that.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis we can give you our expectations about the pair’s movement: it may decline to 1.6850 after breaking the SMA and if it breaks the 1.6820 it might decline to 1.6580 as a first target.
November 21, 2017 at 4:25 pm #42936
November 20, 2017 at 3:50 pm #42874
November 17, 2017 at 3:28 pm #42781
November 16, 2017 at 3:33 pm #42707
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Yesterday a lot of economic indicators were released in the US, which showed mixed dynamics, but in general, the reserve currency began to win back lost positions relative to the major currencies.
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November 15, 2017 at 2:06 pm #42652
Oil(CL/WTI): Review & Short-Term Forecast
Oil came under pressure due to new forecasts about global demand for crude oil which show balance on the market won’t be achieved in the near future amid increasing extraction of shale oil in the USA.
- This reply was modified 1 day, 16 hours ago by Jacob Maas. Reason: Forum is not an advertisement platform. Links are not allowed
November 13, 2017 at 4:10 pm #42523
Markets Are in Decline
The British pound continues to fall.
After the announcement by the US Senate on the introduction of a tax reform in 2019, the stock markets have reacted in a slight decrease and stopped the 8-week dollar rally.
November 10, 2017 at 2:10 pm #42439
Oil Moving Towards Balance
With new developments in Saudi Arabia, the oil seems to be climbing up.
A lot has been going on with the commodity markets lately, so we decided that this week it’s high time we revisited one of the key topics on the financial markets – crude oil.
November 9, 2017 at 2:42 pm #42392
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis
Today we expect speeches by members of the ECB Constancio and Lautenschlaeger which may increase the volatility of this pair.
November 6, 2017 at 2:36 pm #42234
GBP/CAD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
The GBP/CAD is inside a price channel and we expect new highs after the divergence.
The GBP/CAD has risen by more than 430 pips in October after changing its old downward direction to an uptrend in September.
November 3, 2017 at 2:24 pm #42161
Powell Named Next Fed Chief
Trump’s nomination of Jerome Powell as next chief of the Federal Reserve didn’t shock the markets.
For over a week now the financial markets were taking it easy on the American dollar. Investors almost stopped trading USD pairs this week as we all waited for one important announcement that happened yesterday – President Trump’s nomination of a new head of the Federal Reserve. He chose Jerome Powell for this position, so let’s take a look at what this entails.
To start with, it is important to remember that the President’s rule is not absolute – he cannot appoint a Fed chief, but merely nominate one. It is up to the Senate to decide whether they accept the nomination or not. So, technically speaking, Powell’s position is not 100% confirmed yet.
So, who is Jerome Powell? Unlike the previous Federal Reserve chiefs over the last 40 years, Powell does not have a PhD in Economics, but is instead a lawyer by training. However, he has had a long career within the finance world that includes investment banking, a position in the U.S. Treasury during Bush senior’s presidency, and a post as governor within the Federal Reserve for the last few years. He has been working closely with current head Janet Yellen, so he knows all about the current trend of policy making employed by the Fed. In many ways he seems like the perfect candidate for the job, since he’s already involved and up-to-date with the Fed.
In terms of his policy outlook, Powell has been on the same page as the current Fed chief Janet Yellen. That means that while the Federal Reserve in general plans to reduce its investments (after the 2008 crisis the Fed bought trillions of dollars worth of assets in order to boost the economy) and increase interest rates, Powell’s goal would be to do it slowly, gradually. Even though economic data from the United States is coming in consistently positive, the economy is still vulnerable to sudden changes. The Federal Reserve is also struggling with an issue of mixed signals – strong statistics and low unemployment are begging for a rate hike, but low inflation is saying it’s too early. It’s a tricky balance that Yellen has managed to keep with remarkable patience and attention to detail. It is expected that Powell’s approach will be similar.
The markets didn’t have a major reaction to the announcement. As evidenced above, Powell is expected to pretty much replace Yellen unnoticeably, with no major changes in policy. He was also rumored to be the top candidate for the job weeks before the announcement, due to his current prominent post within the Federal Reserve. He is also a Republican, which makes him an even more desirable choice for President Trump and a mostly-Republican Senate.
There was some space for surprise, in case Trump nominated someone else with a different economic opinion, such as John Taylor. The Stanford economist is known for his much more hawkish stance on monetary policy, and if he had been nominated, it is likely that the dollar would have received a major boost.
Since the nomination went on without any major surprises, we can say that in terms of the American dollar, in 2018 we expect things to continue in much the same way as now: slowly, patiently, with a close attention to each report on the American economy and inflation. Meanwhile, an interest rate increase in December, still under Yellen’s guidance, is still expected.
November 2, 2017 at 2:39 pm #42114
EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
Yesterday there was a Federal Reserve meeting and a publication of their interest rate decision, which was left unchanged at the previous level of 1.25%.
November 1, 2017 at 2:19 pm #42034
CAD/JPY: Fundamental Review and Forecast
The JPY has weakened due to a decision by the BoJ to leave the rate unchanged, while the CAD was supported by high oil prices and has all chances for growth.
October 31, 2017 at 1:38 pm #41973
EUR/GBP Technical analysis
Today the pound is no way affected by any economic indicators, but in the eurozone we expect a number of economic indicators, including the consumer price index for October and GDP figures for the last three months. Output data rates may contribute to the strengthening of the euro.
October 27, 2017 at 1:36 pm #41855
ECB Meeting Outcome
The euro slumped after the ECB announced its decision regarding stimulus measures yesterday.
Throughout this week news headlines were dominated by one thing: Thursday’s press conference of the European Central Bank. Despite losses for the euro over the past few weeks, largely due to the political tensions between Spain and Catalonia, the single currency managed to recover some of its losses this week, on the expectation that the ECB would finally announce a plan to phase out of its ambitious stimulus program. Did that happen? It seems that the answer is somewhat complicated.
Let us take a step a few years back first. Amid the fallout of the economic crisis of 2008 the global recession reached Europe and we saw massive economic slowdowns even in the most developed countries in the world. This prompted a new dovish trend among central banks: buying government bonds on a massive scale in order to promote growth and inflation. We saw this happen in the United States, in Japan, and even in Europe.
This is why the European Central Bank has been buying 60 billion euro worth of bonds per month over the past few years. Their efforts have shown results – economic data from all over the eurozone comes in consistently positive, European countries are enjoying economic growth of 2-3%, and inflation has increased, compared to 2008. This positive effect has prompted investors to hope for an end to the stimulus measures, which would allow the euro to start increasing in value against major currencies.
Yesterday’s press conference of the ECB, however, brought mixed results. The central bank finally showed a willingness to move away from stimulus by announced a reduction of the package in half – from 60 down to 30 billion euro per month. That would have been good news for investors and for the euro, had it not been for one addition – the ECB plans to continue with the measures well into 2018, possibly until September. The stimulus package is still needed, according to the ECB, because the healthy inflation rate of 2.0% has not been achieved yet (it is at 1.5% currently).
The markets were hoping for something more short-term, rather than the nine months of bond redemption planned for 2018. As a result, the euro dropped dramatically overnight, falling to trade around 1.1626 today. While investors were hoping to awake to a stronger euro, it seems that the ECB prefers it this way: by preventing the euro from appreciating, the ECB is ensuring exports from the EU are not going to suffer.
So, what’s in store for the euro? The ECB has shown an ability to act flexibly. They would keep a close eye on data from the EU, particularly to wage growth and inflation. It is possible that they would revise their expectations at their next meeting in December. Most importantly, investors need to understand that the ECB is trying to move very slowly, as sudden changes in the financial markets could have a harmful effect and undo all the good the stimulus program has achieved so far. In general terms, this means we are not likely to see a much stronger euro within the next year – unless there are external reasons, such as problems with the American dollar, for example.
October 26, 2017 at 2:44 pm #41809
EUR/USD Market Overview and Forecast
At the moment, we see that the pair is trading in a downward channel.
At the moment we see that the pair is trading in a downward channel.
Today we expect the ECB press conference at which Mario Draghi will announce the amount of reduction of asset redemption, which will undoubtedly impact the single currency. At this point the market has already played the expectations of strengthening and if the volumes amount to 30 billion, as we do not expect, it is assumed that significant fluctuations will occur.
The growth rate of the reserve currency continues to be affected by a number of factors that are encouraging to investors. It’s possible that there will be an adoption of Trump’s tax reform and the expectations of higher interest rates are steady as well.
Now, our pair found resistance level around the 1.1825 mark and is trying to get back in the downstream channel.
The Stochastic indicator came out of the overbought zone and gave us a sell signal.
The RSI strayed from level 70 and also shows a downward movement.
This is why we need to look at the short positions near the entry point marks 1.1825 and the upper border of the channel 1.1815. The targets will be 1.1790 and 1.1745.
In the case of a smaller decline in bonds repurchase, at the level of 40 billion euro, we should expect a positive trend for the Euro and then these levels will serve as support. Then our objectives in long positions will be 1.1850 and 1.1875.
At the time of the press conference entrance into the market is risky.
October 25, 2017 at 2:43 pm #41754
AUD/CAD: Fundamental Review and Forecast
There’re a high volatility today. Investors are waiting for the decision of the Bank of Canada about raising the interest rate. Probably this issue will be postponed until December.
The AUD/CAD rates continue in the frames of a weak downward trend. The only thing that has changed over the last month is a shift of the support line down. The resistance hasn’t changed for a while despite a number of signs of a new uptrend that can be seen on the chart.
Today is full of events for the AUD/CAD currency pair, which led to a sharp increase in volatility on the market. Since the beginning of the day the Australian dollar has come under pressure due to recent negative news about the Australian economy: the inflation rate in the 3rd quarter was only 0.6%, which does not match the expectations of analysts. The inflation rate in annual terms was 1.8% against the expected 2%. The weighted average consumer price index was also below the forecasted level. Therefore, the value of the AUD fell sharply against major currencies.
At the moment investors are waiting for the decision of the Bank of Canada about the interest rate. Though, investors suppose that increasing them will be postponed until December. Also important is the report of the Central Bank about further monetary policy. Last week the CAD was under pressure due to a decreasing of the retail sales volume of 0.7%, while economists were expecting growth of retail sales in 0.3%. The rate of inflation has slowed down. The Australian dollar, in contrast, received support, mainly due to recent data about the economy of China.
The Stochastic oscillator indicates the rates are in the oversold zone, so there’s a high probability of a price correction soon. In this situation the deals to BUY against the current trend would be the most effective. It can be assumed that the most likely decision of the Bank of Canada is to leave interest rates unchanged, temporarily negatively affecting the value of the CAD, which confirms the efficiency of the deals to BUY. However, it’s too early to speak about the formation of an upward trend. It should be noted that the price of oil has a tendency to grow. Increasing oil prices support the Canadian dollar, so the downward trend has all chances to continue.
October 24, 2017 at 3:31 pm #41701
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
For the moment we are seeing an upward movement in the pair and the fact that at the moment it is trading near the Fibo level of 50% is drawn on the daily chart.
In connection with Donald Trump’s appointment of the new head of the Federal Reserve and the imminent adoption of the budget for 2018, we expect that the growth of the reserve currency will continue.
The price has moved away from the Fibonacci level and soon will test it again. So the point of entry on the long positions will be sought at our level, to 40 points.
Our RSI and Stochastic indicators confirm the entry of the purchase.
When the correction happens, it is recommended to enter into long position.
October 23, 2017 at 3:10 pm #41663
Most Important Events This Week
To prepare your trades for this week, pay attention to this kind of important news happening this week.
It is Monday, which means it’s time for traders to plan their moves for this week. Many things are going on around the world right now, but here is a brief overview of some of the key events to focus on during the week.
Without a doubt the most important piece of news you need to be wary of this week is the ECB policy meeting this Thursday. This event is keenly awaited by investors who have been speculating for many months now that the ECB will switch its policy focus and begin tightening its stimulus program. ECB president Mario Draghi will give a speech after the announcement, which would be another great opportunity to look for hints for the end of the stimulus measures. Analysts are currently hoping to hear that the stimulus amount will decrease from 60 to 40 billion euro from January, and that the program will not last longer September next year. If this is announced this Thursday, expect new interest in the euro.
Across the Atlantic we are awaiting news on the American GDP for the 3rd quarter of 2017. This would cover the period when the United States were repeatedly hit by hurricanes, had their oil extraction activities interrupted, engaged in verbal conflict with North Korea, and more. In other words, it was a turbulent period and the GDP report will provide an objective assessment to how the country’s massive economy handled it. The GDP will be published this Friday and will be an important pointer for the Federal Reserve to decide whether to increase interest rates in December.
We also expect the third quarter GDP for the United Kingdom this Wednesday, together with news on the Brexit negotiations.
October 20, 2017 at 3:34 pm #41618
NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast
Speculations around the Federal Reserve and positive statistics support the USD. The NZD continues to fall.
The rates continue in the frames of a downtrend. The New Zealand dollar still cannot find enough incentives for strengthening and a trend reversal in its favor. The situation may change if the RBNZ makes a decision to raise interest rates at their next meeting which will be held on November 8. There are reasons for the increase, such as inflation growth in Q3 to 1.9%, which not only exceeds the expectations of investors, but also exceeds the forecast of the RBNZ. Given that at the moment the interest rate is at a historic minimum and has not changed for a long time, the RBNZ may revise the rate at their next meeting, although it had previously planned to do that in 2019.
This week the rates were influenced by speculations about who would be the new head of the Federal Reserve. Initially, it was predicted that Donald Trump wants to choose a supporter of tight monetary policy, but the latest information on the market is that the biggest chances are currently for a supporter of less “hawkish” policy, Jerome Powell. The U.S economic statistics were positive enough: the manufacturing PMI for the state of New York in October jumped to 30.2 points. The index of business activity from Philadelphia’s FED also unexpectedly increased in September. There was also positive data on the labor market. All of this has led to the dollar’s strengthening against the NZD.
After the publication of the recent data about inflation in New Zealand, the NZD managed to strengthen a bit against the dollar, but then the rates went down due to positive economic data and the speculation around the FED in the USA. Nevertheless, now the NZD has all chances to strengthen in the near future. Oscillators (Stochastics, MACD, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone, suggesting the expediency of opening the deals to buy against the trend to make a profit based on the price correction.
October 19, 2017 at 3:37 pm #41588
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
The pair continues its bullish movement.
Today we would direct our attention to the EUR/JPY currency pair. It has been moving in an upwards direction since May this year, and despite some fluctuations here and there, this still remains the general trend.
The pair is currently seeing some volatility because we are awaiting a speech by the ECB chief Mario Draghi, as well as the CPI release from the eurozone. In Japan we received news that the Bank of Japan is firmly supporting a dovish policy for the near future, which would allow the yen to ease on most currencies.
Right now we have a pivot point for the price located at 132.86. Below the pivot lie the support levels of 132.6, 132.21, and 131.56. Just above the pivot we have the nearby resistance levels at 133.25, 133.52, and 134.17. Here we can apply the general rule for price movements: if the price falls below the pivot, expect it to touch the support levels; if it goes above the pivot, then the resistances might be overcome.
As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/JPY is trading around 133.08, which is above the pivot and close to the first resistance level. Although the various technical indicators are giving us some mixed signals, most favor taking a sell position right now. Our general outlook for the pair is bullish.
October 18, 2017 at 1:58 pm #41551
USD/SEK: Review & Forecast
There is no news from Sweden, so the USD/SEK rate is depending on the situation in the USA. Investors are focused on news about choosing a new FED Head.
Over the last month the situation for the USD/SEK currency pair has not changed. The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend with signs of consolidation. The range of the consolidation phase at the moment is 8.0249-8.1862 SEK.
This week the rates were under the influence of the situation in the United States. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies amid the unstable political situation in the EU. Investors are focusing on the appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve. This week it was reported that Donald Trump would like to see a supporter of tight monetary policy fill the position of Fed Head. On Monday he met with one of the candidates for the post, John Taylor, who was in favor of active interest rate increase and the achievement of a level three times the current one. Donald Trump was pleased with the meeting, but at the moment it is unknown who will finally be chosen in February 2018. Investors are expecting Trump’s decision by November 3.
In any case, the current head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also expressed there is a high probability of a rate hike despite the low inflation indicator. She said that the U.S. economy is currently strong enough and the good situation on the labour market allows for an increase in the interest rate in the near future.
The Stochastics oscillator signals reaching the overbought zone and the probability of a price correction in the near future, which allows us to make a profit with short deals. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the USD has the potential for further strengthening in the medium term perspectives. Therefore, pay attention to the point of entry 8.1862 SEK, which may indicate not only the completion of the consolidation phase, but also the trend reversal in favor of USD. On the other hand, the achievement of the level 8.0249 SEK confirms the continuation of the current downtrend.
October 13, 2017 at 1:51 pm #41396
Recent Developments with Oil
The latest events in the US, OPEC, and China have helped stabilize the oil market, but where is it really going?
To anyone interested in the financial markets it is hardly a secret that crude oil has been really far away from its usual glamour over the past few years. What started off as competition between the OPEC states (chiefly led by Saudi Arabia) and the United States exacerbated and led to a dramatically oversupplied oil market, bringing prices down to record lows. Now, more than two years later, is oil finally recovering?
First off, if we look to the United States, generally speaking, they have consistently increased their oil extraction activities. Thanks to shale oil, the US is able to extract oil in a cost-effective manner that allows them to make a profit even at low oil prices. This is why throughout the oil crisis the United States remained undeterred and kept up with their schedule as if nothing out of the ordinary is going on. Towards the end of this summer, however, the US was forced to put some of its activities on hold due to a series of natural disasters along its coastlines, which caused huge damages and disrupted the work of oil extraction facilities. This allowed the markets to ease off somewhat, but there was no reason to assume that the United States would decrease their oil production anytime soon.
On the other hand, last year OPEC member states managed to agree to start cutting their oil production in order to fight the oversupply on the market. With an unbelievably committed compliance with the agreement of up to 90% OPEC managed to decrease their exports and gradually bring oil prices up past the psychological level of $50 per barrel. They were also helped by non-OPEC countries like Russia who willingly joined the reduction effort in order to stabilize the oil market. Investors perked up recently amid news both from OPEC and Russia that everyone is willing to continue with this approach into 2018 in an attempt to restore the market to how it used to be.
Nevertheless, yesterday data on the US oil reserves was released which showed a decline in the number of barrels available. This allowed oil prices to climb up to $51.01 (WTI) and $56.58 (Brent).
In addition, China entered into play again. At the beginning of the oil crisis, China (the biggest oil importer in the world) was quite important – due to its slowing economic growth, it simply didn’t demand as much oil as before, so it left the market oversupplied. Now China has started buying oil again, though according to reports, it is not consumer demand, but rather to fill its security reserves. Still, this helped ease the market further.
Another important factor for the oil market right now is the Iran deal. It has to be renewed every 90 days and it’s widely expected that Donald Trump would not renew it this week. If he does not renew it, US Congress has two more months to decide on sanctions for Iran, which could block some of the oil supply coming from there. If this happens, supply will decrease and oil prices will move up.
According to the International Energy Agency, 2018 would generally shape to be a balanced year for oil. They report steady increases in demand, which would lead to a healthier oil market, provided the current production levels are met. However, this means that OPEC would need to extend its agreement on production cuts past March 2018, when it is set to expire. If a new agreement is reached and we do not see massive natural disasters, then next year we could finally see the oil market recover.
October 12, 2017 at 2:38 pm #41363
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Today during the Australian session there were a number of indicators for Australia released, which were generally higher than projected.
At the moment the pair is trading in the corridor between Fibo levels held on the daily chart. We observe that the price breaks through the “body” of the candle into our levels and often returns to the previous range.
If we view our graph from the point of view of wave analysis, then we can observe the completion of the medium-term downward movement and the formation of the second upward wave.
This is why today’s trading recommendation is to look for points to enter long positions in the area of the mark of 0.7810 with the expectation of the formation of an upward wave.
October 11, 2017 at 1:53 pm #41323
XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast
The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything.
The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump’s reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year.
This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% – the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%.
The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
October 10, 2017 at 1:52 pm #41290
GBP/CAD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
After breaking the channel, we are still looking forward new highs, despite the downward movement this month.
In our previous report about the GBP/CAD pair last month we mentioned the channel breaking and recommended buying the pair after the break. We saw the prices rose last month but they haven’t hit our target yet. This month the pair has been declining to reach down the moving average for the last 50 days around 1.6367 – it found a support level there.
The pair is now trading around 1.6500, below 38.2% Fibonacci but we expect the prices will break it up again to resume the correction wave and reach 50% and 61.8% and maybe more, if they break last month’s high after forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the prices rose from here directly, the MACD indicator will start giving us a sell signal but the columns are still above the zero level.
The Next Few Days
The plan from here is straightforward. In case of any downward movement we will buy the pair to our main target at 50% – we can take a buy position now around 1.6500 and close part of the trade at 1.5710, and the rest of orders at 1.6850. That is in case the pair is still trading above 1.6223.
The manufacturing production was released from the UK and came in positive numbers at 0.4%, compared to the forecasted 0.2%. This week we don’t have any important news elsewhere from the UK or Canada but we have to look at the chart periodically even once a day in anticipation of any uncalendared news.
October 9, 2017 at 2:17 pm #41216
AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
After breaking the channel, the pair is looking forward to the next support level.
Last week the AUD/JPY declined by more than 130 pips after the negative retail sales from Australia, which came at -0.6% compared to the forecasted at 0.3% and the previous one at -0.2%. As a result, the pair slipped from 88.60 to trade now at 87.30. In our last report about the pair we recommended buying the pair around 88.00 and the prices hit our targets at 89.00 and 90.20.
The pair is trading at the support level 87.38 after it broke the short-term price channel last Friday and closed the candle below it, so it may lead the price to further lows in the next days. The moving average is trading above the price to support the negative movement but we have to see a candle close below the support level. The RSI indicator is ahead of 10 level to make an overbought action.
The Next Few Days
Based on this analysis of the the daily chart, we will look forward to an H4 or daily candle closing below the support level 87.38 to sell the pair below it, keeping our target at 85.80. Then we will stay out of the market to see what will happen and the lower limit of the long-term channel. On the other hand, if we see the price back to trade above 88.25 we can buy it till the next resistance level.
This week the markets don’t have any important news from Australia or Japan but we will trade carefully regarding any uncalendared news because of the political tensions between the USA and North Korea.
October 6, 2017 at 3:10 pm #41170
Catalonia: Spanish or Independent?
Last week’s referendum has brought new tensions to Europe.
The European markets shook this week, as last weekend Catalonia, an autonomous area comprising four provinces in northeastern Spain, held a referendum and voted in support of its independence from Spain. This week we would take a look at what happened and also where that leaves us now.
To begin with, the political status of Catalonia has long been a pressing concern on the Iberian peninsula. The region has long claimed it is a distinct nation, owing to historical evidence that up to the 16th century, it used to be separate from Spain. In modern history, Catalonia has fought for its independence all throughout the 20th century: it first received a status as an autonomous region within Spain in 1932, which was taken away during Franco’s rule. The autonomous status of Catalonia was restored in the 1970s when Spain returned to democratic rule. Catalans are allowed to speak their own language and have their own government, though officially it is subordinate to the Spanish government.
Over the last few years tensions regarding Catalan nationality have risen, culminating in last week’s referendum. Spain is naturally opposed to losing land and people which have been part of its territory over the last five centuries. Catalonia also happens to be a fairly rich territory. In general, if Catalonia declares independence, this would be perceived by Spanish authorities as an attempt to disrupt Spain’s territorial integrity and could even lead to (civil) war.
Is Catalonia independent? Right now, no. The referendum’s goal was to assess whether the Catalan population wants to be independent from Spain. They voted 90% in favor, but it is up to the Catalan government to decide whether to act on this vote or not. The referendum itself caused violent clashes with the Spanish police, so the Catalan authorities might bide their time, working out a way to avoid future conflict. The Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has spoken about involving international diplomats to help hold peaceful negotiations.
Naturally, the seriousness of this situation has caused ripples through the financial markets. Spanish stocks lost 2.7% this week, while banks that are based in Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) were a whole 7% down. Spanish bonds have also decreased.
So, what happens now? Some analysts believe that Catalonia is not fully prepared for independence, in terms of its political organs and readiness for policy making. The region has relied on Spain, and by extension, the European Union for many of its day-to-day activities, so severing that relationship will be hard. If Catalonia declared independence without Spain’s approval, it would find itself in a tight spot. Spain’s economy will also suffer immensely, and future clashes and protests will hinder business activity. Investors could give up on Spanish assets altogether, which could plunge the government into a recession.
It is more likely that there will be a negotiation, which could win Catalonia additional levels of control over its activities, but would still not be a complete independence from Spain.
Because of the current protests and blocked roads, it has been impossible for some businesses to operate as usual. If things continue to be so chaotic and uncertain, Spain’s economic growth would stall.
Right now all eyes are on the Iberian Peninsula. If the King of Spain agrees to meet for peaceful negotiations, the pressure would ease off Spanish assets. However, if Catalonia moves ahead and declares independence, we could see a new crisis in Spain, and consequently Europe.
October 5, 2017 at 1:41 pm #40986
EUR/CHF technical analysis
At the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it.
From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels.
Support and resistance levels:
October 4, 2017 at 2:05 pm #40947
USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast
The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn’t noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It’s known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.
Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors’ expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn’t support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.
October 3, 2017 at 11:37 am #40891
GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
The pound-dollar pair is now demonstrating a downward movement. Our price is under the slow moving MA (120), which now becomes our support level.
Against the backdrop of not the most optimistic data on business activity in the industrial sector of the United Kingdom, we continue to observe the strengthening of the dollar against the British currency. That signals a possible slowdown in economic growth.
Our technical indicators also indicate a downward movement. The pair is delayed near stronger, day-time Fibo levels.
That is why at the moment it is recommended to look for points to enter short positions.
Support and resistance levels:
October 2, 2017 at 1:36 pm #40857
GBP/AUD Technical Outlook before the Cash Rate
Looking for new highs after breaking the price channel.
In our last report about the GBP/AUD on September 5 the pair was trading inside a descending price channel and we recommended selling the pair if the prices are still trading between its limits, unless the prices broke the limit. We saw the pair broke the upper limit on September 12 and retested the broken level on Sep 14, so we closed our sell positions and we were supposed to take buy positions after the retest, according to classical theory in case of breakthroughs.
After the price channel breaking, Forex theory says that the prices will rise as much as the last upside wave before the channel. You can see the black lines in the chart below, so the target of this wave will be at 1.7870. The pair reached the key resistance level 1.7143 last week, which has 10 tops and bottoms on it. You can see 5 in the chart below, so the prices will make a little downward correction and rise again to break it. The moving average is still trading below the prices to support our positive vision for the pair.
The Next Few Days
Based on this analysis, we have taken a positive vision after breaking the channel. We know that the pair will break the resistance level soon, so we can take a buy position now at the current level at 1.7024 and if the prices return back to 1.6980 we can take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.7625 and another long-term target at 1.7870.
Tomorrow we have the cash rate and the policy statement from the Republic Bank of Australia and PMI’s data from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we have the retail sales and trade balance from Australia, so we should trade carefully this week due to this news.
September 29, 2017 at 3:05 pm #40816
Trump`s tax reform
How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy?
This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trump’s administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trump’s office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trump’s mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Let’s see!
First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trump’s presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before it’s even fully-defined. Trump’s previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again.
The plan that Trump’s administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administration’s goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for people’s personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected.
Trump’s tax plan doesn’t provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesn’t prove that this new tax system won’t place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while it’s murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States.
The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. It’s also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud.
Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, it’s still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress – if it is ever completed.
Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, it’s worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea – any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.
September 28, 2017 at 2:38 pm #40760
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
At present our pair is trading within the daily Fibo levels and pushing away from the level of 1.2220 (Fibo level 0.00). It has approached and is currently testing the level of 23.6.
So far the pair has not been able to break through the resistance level of the candle body and we are seeing a correction that can last up to 1.2355.
Furthermore, the MACD histogram shows a weakening, and the Stochastic indicator is showing a possible spread. It is still in the overbought zone, but about to enter a really strong correction or spread. Therefore, it’s too early to say what position we should take, until we receive a more conclusive result.
Of the fundamental factors today we have data on the US GDP for the second quarter. The pair might not reach our resistance levels, with indicators exceeding the projected 3% and rushing up.
In addition, the Canadian government is concerned about strengthening its own currency and is ready to reduce the level of inflation.
Overall, we are looking for points to enter long positions at the current support levels and expect an upward movement of the pair.
September 27, 2017 at 2:07 pm #40703
EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast
The results from the elections in Germany negatively impacted the EUR, though it still has a potential for stabilizing.
Starting from Monday, September 25 the euro came under pressure due to the election results in Germany. The ruling party together with Angela Merkel won the election, but with the lowest result since 1949. They are not able to form a coalition easily, as it happened at previous elections. However, other parties also cannot form a coalition themselves, which is why nobody doubts that Angela Merkel will again be Chancellor. Nevertheless, it is expected that negotiations on creating a coalition will be difficult because the former coalition partners do not want to continue their cooperation. In any case, the opposition will be stronger than ever, so investors prefer at the moment to invest in other assets.
On the other hand, the Singaporean dollar has been supported this week due to the recent data about the volume of manufacturing production in August, which exceeded the forecasts of investors both in annual and monthly terms, although the growth has been less rapid than in the previous month and amounted to +19.1% against the expected 14.2% YoY.
On the EUR/SGD chart we can see the formation of a weak downward trend which forms after a steady flat period. The support line shifts down, but now we have also a high probability of a price correction. After the market reacted to the elections in Germany and took into account the probability of political uncertainty in Germany, the euro still has a potential for stabilizing in price and strengthening. Market volatility will be lower next week, after an intense news period. In the near future we can expect data about the business activity index (PMI) from Singapore and about the volume of retail sales in the EU.
In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the deals to BUY in short-term trading, which is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, the probability of the continuation of the new downtrend in favor of the SGD is preserved in the medium term.
September 26, 2017 at 1:24 pm #40655
Charity in Thailand
This week SuperForex held a special event in Lat Krabang – one of the districts of Thailand’s capital, Bangkok. As a modern company, we appreciate the importance of Corporate Social Responsibility and aim to help people in need. Thus we have chosen the Camillian Home to support needy Thai children.
Camillian Home is a registered non-profit children’s charity. It is one of the few facilities in Thailand dedicated to caring for these children in a family atmosphere, and it aims to serve as a model in caring for vulnerable children with special needs. They work with children who are living with disabilities, some of whom have been orphaned or abandoned, and some of whom are also living with HIV/AIDS.
For such a mission we asked Jiranan Suebnuch, our representative in Thailand, to help us make those children and employees happy. She kindly agreed to help us with this initiative. Together we bought all the things Camillian Home has in its suggested items for donation.
Pleasant people from Camillian home told they will make use of all those products and young Thai children, for whom the whole event was devoted, seemed happy and spent a good time with representatives of SuperForex company.
If you have any ideas on how to help more people that really need it – feel free to contact us. We are sure that acting in socially responsible way is an essential part of modern companies’ working.
September 25, 2017 at 1:15 pm #40583
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
After breaking the channel we are still waiting for the Moving Average of the pair.
Since the EUR/JPY pair broke down the price channel last month, it is still fighting to make new highs below the channel. The pair retested it a few times before, the last one happening the previous week when the pair reached the resistance area 134.40-50 and now it has been declining for two days to trade at 133.12.
In our previous article about the pair we said that we would sell the pair once it broke the moving average down, but the pair didn’t make it. Instead, it just touched the MA and back to rise again. That is why up until now we could not take buy positions – because the pair couldn’t break above the resistance level and the stochastic indicator had been giving us the sell signal. Now we have a strong support area at the SMA 50 at 132.31.
The Next Few Days
Based on this simple analysis of the pair, after retesting the channel we are going to sell the pair at the current level 133.12 and keep our target at 132.35. We are going to wait for the SMA breaking down, then we can sell again below 131.30 and our target for this trade will be at 126.50. However, this whole scenario depends on the pair still trading below the resistance level 134.50.
This week the market doesn’t bring any hot news from the European Union or Japan, except the speeches of the Central Bank’s president Draghi today and Friday, and Bank of Japan governor Kuroda on Thursday.
September 22, 2017 at 1:59 pm #40527
German Elections 2017
Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday – how would that affect Europe?
Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.
Why aren’t media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.
While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.
While immigration seems to be on everybody’s mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more – and they can all affect the way Germany’s economy works – and the way Germany participates in the European Union.
One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II – they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).
Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.
September 21, 2017 at 3:09 pm #40469
GBP/EUR Technical analysis
The pair is moving within a downward trend.
At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.
Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.
Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.
Support and resistance levels:
September 20, 2017 at 1:43 pm #40416
CAD / JPY technical analysis
At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.
On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared “shooting star”, which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a “head and shoulders” figure, with a shoulder level in the area of 88.90.
But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.
Support and resistance levels
September 19, 2017 at 2:02 pm #40368
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate
The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.
The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.
The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.
The Next Few Days
The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.
This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week – the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.
September 18, 2017 at 2:52 pm #40325
GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out
The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.
In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.
The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.
The Next Few Days
After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.
Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.
September 15, 2017 at 1:58 pm #40286
A new wave of tension
North Korea conducted a nuclear test again
This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into “ash and darkness” and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.
This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.
This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.
The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.
The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday’s sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.
September 14, 2017 at 4:16 pm #40263
USD / CHF technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 – 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.
Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.
Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.
We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.
The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.
Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775
July 7, 2017 at 3:35 pm #38311
A New Hope for the Pound
The United Kingdom’s currency seems to have finally slowed its descent – could it be ready to start recovering?
The future of the British currency became quite uncertain the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote last June, then slumped after the results came through. Now it seems that for the first time in 2017 investors are changing their views on the pound for the better. However, this pertains to the pound vs the dollar; where the euro is concerned, the situation is different.
This discrepancy could be easily explained. For one thing, investors expected a lot more from the US economy, mostly riding on Donald Trump’s promised goals as president, especially his vow to bring economic growth up to 3%. This is easier said than done, as we’ve seen. Lukewarm reports from the United States, as well as Trump’s general struggle to enact any kind of policy successfully have made investors lower their expectations. We’ve even seen the dollar drop against all major currencies in recent weeks.
The situation is pretty much the opposite with the eurozone. The European Central Bank is in the midst of a massive stimulus program to encourage healthy inflation and spending. Even though the expectation was to see it continue a bit longer, the program is already paying off and surprisingly good economic data from all around Europe has prompted the ECB to admit they may start phasing out the program before the year’s end and turn to a more hawkish policy on the euro. In addition, fears of further political unrest in the EU have been calmed by Macron’s victory in the French presidential elections in April. We still have to see what would happen in the German general elections this fall, but things seem promising for Angela Merkel. It was previously feared she might not gather enough support but after a successful equal marriage rights vote last week it seems likely that she would stay in power.
July 6, 2017 at 3:21 pm #38274
We forecast new growth for the USD/JPY and good buy opportunities.
Today we direct our attention to the USD/JPY currency pair. Yesterday the USD/JPY showed significant progress and was quite active during the day, but it eventually failed to overcome the 113.60 level and retracted. Still, we believe the pair would likely continue to test its resistances and make space for further upward movement, as long as the pair keeps trading above the level of 113.
To predict future highs, we can reliably use the guidance of the nearby resistance levels for the USD/JPY – we have resistances at 113.19, 113.41, and 113.63. We believe that overcoming these resistance levels is the most likely course for the pair as it stands now.
Still, it’s good to be prepared for the alternative scenario as well. On the downside, we have several nearby support levels such as 112.75, 112.50, and 112. If the first support is breached, likely we’d see the pair play around the other two supports as well.
At this point the movements of the USD/JPY largely depend on trader sentiment and market behavior. The level of 114 stands before us as a psychological barrier, and if the pair is pushed beyond it, we can see it grow further up to 115 even.
As of the moment of this article’s publication the USD/JPY is trading around the first level of resistance at 113.19. Most technical indicators agree that the best course of action is a strong buy stance.
Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics
July 5, 2017 at 4:20 pm #38240
USD/SEK: Review & Forecast
Riksbank supported the SEK while the USD was losing positions amid political tensions and investors’ worries about the rate change by the FED.
The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although in the period from May 19 until June 27 the trend changed to a flat one. It seemed that the downward trend had been finally completed at the beginning of July. However, market volatility has suddenly increased, and the downward trend has been restored.
This week there were no significant factors that would affect the USD/SEK rates. The main factor that influence the value of the USD in recent weeks remains the political tension in the United States and investors’ worries about the future for the FED rate hikes due to weak economic data in the United States. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials maintain the stance that the rates should be raised more before the end of 2017. Nevertheless, investors suppose that the Federal Reserve may delay increasing the interest rate if the situation in the U.S. economy changes in a positive way and if political tensions in the US grow. Based on this, the dollar lost positions against most currencies while investors prefer safe-haven instruments such as JPY and Gold.
Read more here: https://superforex.com/analytics/usd-sek-review-forecast-050717
July 4, 2017 at 4:05 pm #38184
EUR/USD Daily Analysis & Chart
A surprisingly stable euro is dominating the pair – we expect further bullishness.
Today we’d look into the EUR/USD trading instrument. The pair has had an interesting few months – 2017 began with widespread speculation that between the weakening euro and the strengthening dollar we’d meet in the middle and see perfect parity before the year’s end. However, this hasn’t been the case and lately we’ve seen the opposite, though in milder terms – a slight strengthening of the euro versus a somewhat weaker dollar.
Even though the euro lost some of its momentum over the weekend, our outlook for it remains positive. We might see some gains today as the markets in the United States are on a break for the Independence Day celebrations.
The euro is very close to the psychological level of 1.14. We have been getting data about the European economy that’s been consistently positive, including the most recent PMI report.
July 3, 2017 at 4:23 pm #38131
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June 30, 2017 at 5:07 pm #38069
The Euro on the Rise
The European currency seems to be on the rise, enjoying a positive economic outlook.
Here is something we didn’t think we’d be saying so soon: the euro is having a good time.
The currency of the European Union went through some serious hardship over the past decade – it suffered immensely in the global recession of 2008, the debt crisis in some EU countries such as Greece and Portugal, which eventually led to further internal conflicts and more trouble for Europe’s unity as the United Kingdom announced its intention to leave and the fear of losing more members spread as Italy and France held elections recently.
However, this bleak phase for the euro seems to be approaching an end. Despite small daily fluctuations, which occur naturally when there’s global activity on the financial markets, the euro was able to climb up and is currently in its strongest levels since 2011, according to Reuters.
Part of the reason why this is a little surprising is the fact that the European Central Bank, the EU’s organ for monetary policy, has been implementing a stimulus program to boost the European economy by encouraging inflation, something that logically decreases the value of the euro versus other major currencies. It has already been two years since the program began and investors as well as the ECB itself initially expected to continue with this approach for a few years. Nevertheless, recent data from the European Union shows the economy is doing quite well, which prompted ECB President Mario Draghi to show willingness to change the course of the current policy as early as September this year.
Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/the-euro-on-the-rise
June 29, 2017 at 5:57 pm #38038
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June 27, 2017 at 5:38 pm #37969
GBP/NZD Technical Outlook after the Financial Stability Report
Minutes ago we listened to BOE governor Mark Carney’s speech about the financial stability in the United Kingdom. He said that the financial stability associated with the outcomes or the results of Brexit and the consumer credit has far outpaced household income over last year, and those comments led the pound currency to decline with 20-30 pips against all major currencies and to rise back again.
Today we would discuss the GBP/NZD pair which has lost more than 1400 pips since May 22 after breaking the small channel at the top. In our last report we recommended selling the pair at 1.7960 and it achieved our targets at 1.7932 and 1.7465 for more than 490 pips.
The pair is trading now at 1.7430, close to the uptrend line which has 4 bottoms. We are waiting for another retest to buy the pair. The Stochastic indicator lines are crossed together at the level 35.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis of the daily chart we have to wait for a bullish candle at these levels or a little lower on the daily or H4 chart in order to buy the pair. We should keep our first target at 1.7765 and the second one at 1.8150, but if the prices break the trend line and settle down we have to sell the pair to the bottom 1.6830.
This week is overwhelmed with hot events like Carney’s speech tomorrow and the current account on Friday from the UK. Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/gbp-nzd-technical-outlook-after-the-financial-stability-report
June 26, 2017 at 6:31 pm #37930
We wanted to let you know that we have updated our official website. If you head over there right now, you would find it has a slicker design, quick links to key services that are easier to locate, and the best part is that everything is responsive, so it should look and work great even on your mobile devices. The new appearance of the website is quite user-friendly and would permit even our mobile users to enjoy our services to the fullest.
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May 12, 2017 at 1:22 pm #36245
AUD/CAD: review and forecast
The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China.
By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don’t expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn’t join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend.
Read more analytic reviews at https://superforex.com/analytics
May 10, 2017 at 2:03 pm #36124
NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast
Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country’s economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar.
Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high.
At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 – 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it’s 1.75%. Investors don’t expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don’t not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD.
Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there’re no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading.
Read more at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 26, 2017 at 1:34 pm #35530
CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast
While the Euro has strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen, showing a giant price hike from 116.8 JPY up to 121 JPY based on results of the 1st round of elections in France, while the yen is losing positions against most currencies because it is under the pressure, mainly due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, the canadian dollar failed to take the initiative and the rates CAD/JPY continues in the frames of downward trend. Though it’s strengthened a bit yesterday.
At the moment, the Canadian dollar is under the pressure of many factors, firstly because of the falling in oil prices. The price for black gold fell again, and fell below the psychological point in $ 50. Forecasts here aren’t good for the CAD because the United States continues to increase oil production, and President D. Trump supporting it and trying to make conditions for energy companies easier for developing oil extraction on the continental territory in the U.S. and on the shelf. Also, the canadian dollar decreasing in value because D. Trump continues to demand revision of trade relations with its neighbors and contradictions between Canada and the United States becomes more and more serious.
This week is full of important events, and the market will get a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which will affect the rates of CAD/JPY. Today, the market awaits important information about the volume of retail sales in Canada, conference of the President of the United States. Also, tomorrow we’ll get the Report of the Bank of Japan about perspectives for Japanese economy, and on Friday we expect data about Canada’s GDP, consumer price indices and volume of production in Japan. Therefore, this week, volatility may increase. Probably we can expect for further strengthening of JPY in the frames of current downtrend. The oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimously indicate the good moment to open the deals to SELL, after the price correction, which occurred yesterday.
Read more reviews at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 25, 2017 at 2:55 pm #35463
NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
Today we would look at the development of the exchange rate between the New Zealand and the American dollars. Previously the pair moved within the 0.6860-6990 frame, but we saw the pair take a bullish turn as it broke above 0.7000 and it even reached the important level of 0.7100. The bullish influence continued in full heat and new heights were reached at the levels of 0.7250-0.7350, which serves as the pair’s sell zone.
The NZD/USD then finally returned to a bearish movement and dropped to 0.6960. This proved to be a weak support, as the pair tends to return to the border of the buy zone 0.6860, where we started. After touching this level the pair began climbing back up from 0.6960.
As the pair seems to be oscillating between these levels, we have opportunities to both buy and sell it at important intervals. Watch out for the pair dropping and also for it rising to 0.7100. This still provides a lot of resistance and the NZD/USD has struggled to overcome it. If it does success, it will likely go up to 0.7250.
At the moment of the publication of this article the pair has retreated to 0.6956 and most indicators agree that this is a strong sell.
Read more reviews at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 21, 2017 at 2:08 pm #35280
NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast
The NZD/JPY rates is in the frames of rapid downward trend. However, the new Zealand dollar had stopped falling and consolidated in the range 76,0 – 76,76 JPY. Yesterday it’s been received important statistics related with 2 currencies. Economic statistics from New Zealand, positively impacted the NZD. The consumer price index grew in 2.2% year on year, exceeding forecasts. It is also the highest annual growth rate since 2011. For the 1st quarter of the year the index grew in 1%, slightly exceeding forecasted 0.8% level. At the moment, that was enough to stabilize the exchange rate of the NZD. In a week, the market expects new data about trade balance of New Zealand that may affect the value of the NZD.
On the other hand, the trade balance of Japan, already known, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations, amounted to only 0.17 T, although it was expected that this indicator will be 3 times more, and will be at 0.61. That’s disappointed investors, although overall the economy of Japan is at good level. Volume of exports and imports grew, and exceeded predicted forecasted values. This also becomes the main growth factor of the Japanese economy in the future. Investors expect growth by 1% in 2017.
At this moment, the oscillators MACD, Stochastics, the RSI are neutral. It should be noted that since April 10, we can see formation of the flat trend, thought at the moment, it is early to say about ending of the downtrend. There’re no enough preconditions for that. You should pay attention to the points of entry 76.75 and 76.2 JPY. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, it is recommended to open the short deals on the trend.
Read more at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 18, 2017 at 3:44 pm #35138
The EUR/JPY Review & Forecasting Uptrend
Since March 13 the EURJPY currency pair has changed the direction and became strongly down and it declined since this day till yesterday around 790 pips, so large number or big loss for the pair, but after yesterday close I think the pair finished the bleeding journey and will start rising now, so if you want to make money read all this report till the end.
Firstly, we have so strong support area and the prices gave us the buy signal let’s take a look at the chart:
1. The rising wave after the Brexit on June 24 till the top on Dec 15, the pair has reached to 61.8%, and it’s the golden correction percentage and expected the pair will rise from there.
the smaller rising wave from Feb 27 till March 13, the pair has reached to 161.8, the golden extension percentage.
2. The rising trend line from July 6 which the prices touched it 4 times before and rose, the prices have touched again this week and expected to rise again.
3. On the daily chart, yesterday candle is bullish engulfing candle which refers to the uptrend.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis on daily we can buy the pair now at 115.95 and keep our first target at 118.20 and the second one at 120.10 especially after we saw the RSI indicator give buy signal and rose to 37 level.
This week we don’t have any hot news from the European Union or even from Japan but be careful from any unusual news can change the market direction.
Read More at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 14, 2017 at 2:13 pm #35025
AUD/CAD: review and forecast
The upward trend of the AUDCAD chart, which steadily continued amid decreasing of oil prices and other factors, is in the risk to be completed. Rising of oil prices and strengthening the USD allowed the canadian currency to strengthened amid disappointing statistics on the economy of Australia. The support line has been broken and greatly displaced down. So, now we can see that the downtrend is formed, though it’s early to talk that current upward trend is over. It can be restored next week. Australian currency may take again the initiative, considering that in the near future, the market is not expected any important data on the canadian economy.
At the same time, next week, we expect important information from China and New Zealand, which may impact the value of the Australian currency, as Australia is a leading trade partner of these two countries. Yesterday, the AUD has increased significantly during 1 day – with 0,997 – up to 1,008 CAD thanks to latest information about economy of China, where in March, exports grew 16.4% year-on-year, and imports by 20%. In particular, imports from Australia grew by 74.8%. Also, positively impacted the strengthening of the Australian dollar, strong statistics on a labour market – recent report of the Australian Bureau of statistics show “the employment change” indicator was 60.9 K, against predicted 3 times less 20.
Today, we can’t expect some volatility on the market because of Easter’s holiday in Australia and Canada. So the the rates of the AUD/CAD probably will come to consolidation phase, but in Monday trading will be more active and probability of a price correction will increase. Oscillators give mixed signals, but in the current situation, low volatility in the market, we can pay attention to the entry points 1,0072 and 1,0085. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, we’d recommend to open the deals to SELL, trusting the Stochastics oscillator.
Read more at https://superforex.com/analytics
April 11, 2017 at 1:50 pm #34877
[b]The GBPCAD in Crossroads & H4 Chart[/b]
When you take a look at daily chart for the GBPCAD currency pair, you will see that we have the last 3 candles are bearish candles which led the pair to 1.6513 the lowest level in two weeks after it recorded the highest 1.6798 in this month and for minutes ago the CPI released from the UK and came as the previous one at 2.3% and better than the forecasting figure at 2.2%, after this news the GBPCAD rose more than 55 pips to trade now around 1.6560.
The pair is trading inside a wedge since last November and I think it’s the time for the breaking, when we look at the pair on smaller time frame like H4 we see the pair touched the lowest level and we can’t predict now it will break it or will back to rise again, the Stochastic indicator is in oversold levels it means we can buy the pair from here.
[b]The Next Few Days[/b]
From this analysis on daily and h4 chart we have to wait for a bullish candle on H4 chart and buy the pair and place our take profit at 1.6650 at the resistance level and around the SMA and the next target at 1.6760, but if the pair didn’t form a bullish candle and broke the wedge down we can sell it and keep our target at 1.6300.
We have to be careful in the upcoming days regarding hot news like the overnight rate and monetary policy from Canada in addition to BOC press conference.
April 7, 2017 at 2:00 pm #34732
USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.
The rates of the USD/SEK is in the frames of upward trend. Dollar continues also to strengthen against the Krone, this week. It should be noted about unusually high volatility for this currency pair. Positively impacted the dollar a strong statistics from the USA this week. Employment in the agricultural sector increased to 263К against forecasted 187К. The number of applications for unemployment allowance dropped significantly to 234 thousand. It’s been predicted reductions the number of applications from 258 to 250 thousands. In addition, received information about the reduction of the trade deficit: from – 44,8 – up-to -43,6. Also, it has been noticed the FED representatives, who said that current situation in the US economy is not only allows to increase the interest rate, but need it in the near future.
As for the Sweden, the market has not received new information that could affect the value of the Swedish Krona. At the moment there are only data for February. The most significant of them are increased volume of orders in industry by 12% and the growth of industrial production at 4.1% in February, year-on-year. Trade balance has been fixed at almost zero value, and in the period December 2016 – February 2017 amounted -0.6 billion SEK.
At this moment the most optimal can be the deals on the trend, which in the medium term can generate some profit. We can expect achieving the level 9.05. Oscillator MACD also show potential to growth. Though probability of a price correction remains high, but opening the short deals, seems less promising at the moment.
April 6, 2017 at 1:05 pm #34645
Tesla CFDs Review & Forecast
Most traders prefer to trade with currencies and don’t pay attention to the possibility to earn on the shares of leading companies. If you trade with currencies, you need to analyse many factors, which often contradict each other. All this requires much of your attention, knowledge and skills as a trader. Even if you are a trader with years of experience, the risk of losses is high. In contrast, trading with contracts of difference (CFDs) is much simpler.
We offer you to start trading with CFDs now in order not to lose an opportunity to get profit. We would like to direct your attention to the shares of TESLA. This young company is growing rapidly and has enormous potential. Now everything becomes predictable as never. Volatility becomes high and it is possible to make good money. The company is rapidly increasing its production of electric cars, becoming more and more profitable. In its 14 years of operations, TESLA is near in value to the cost of Ford Motor, which is more than 110 years old.
We can confidently expect that in the future this company will become the world leader of the automotive industry amid the comprehensive transition to electric cars and the desire to save the environment. Nowadays, even countries like China are beginning to use electric cars. All car manufacturers are increasing the volumes of electric cars production; the demand for electric cars is rapidly growing. Everybody understands that electric cars are the future of the automotive industry. This will certainly increase the value of TESLA’s shares – in fact, it is increasing rapidly right now.
On the chart of the #TSLA, you can see an incredibly rapid upward trend. Nowadays you won’t see anything like that. We can say for sure that this trend will continue in the future. We are waiting for further rapid growth, giant hikes and price corrections, which you can use to earn a profit with any trading strategy, both long- and short-term.
Thousands of traders have already noticed the potential of TESLA and trade on it actively. Now you can join them and trade profitably with #TSLA today.
We wish you luck in your trades!
- This reply was modified 7 months, 2 weeks ago by Jacob Maas.
April 4, 2017 at 11:14 am #34513
Technical Outlook for USDJPY & Daily Chart
Since the Federal Reserve increase the interest rate last month and the US Dollar is in constant decline against the Japanese Yen from the highest level in the last two months at 115.49 to trade now at 110.40 it means more than 500 pips loss.
The USDJPY currency pair is trading now in series of corrective waves in a price channel which will lead the prices to make a correction movement to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci, but we have a key support level at last month’s lowest prices that in case the pair broke it down we can take sell positions to make profits.
The MACD indicator is still giving us a sell signal and the bars are below the 0 value, the RSI didn’t give us the oversold sign yet, it means the pair will lose more pips.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis we can sell the pair now at 110.45 with small lot size and increase it once the pair broke the 110.15 level and keep our first target at 50% Fibo at 108.85 and the second one at 106.50 which reflect the 61.8% Fibo that in case the pair still trading below 111.70, if it broke 111.70 up we can buy it till 113.40.
We have to be careful in the upcoming hot news like the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI and the FOMC Meeting next Wednesday and the Non-Farm and jobs report on Friday
March 29, 2017 at 1:15 pm #34264
EUR/AUD: short review and forecast
The rates of EUR/AUD are in the frames of new upward trend, which has formed a month ago. The Euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar and many other currencies, including the Australian dollar (AUD). During the last few weeks we have not received any important information that would affect the Australian currency. The data that were on the market, were not enough. The iron ore prices are stable, the price of gold rising, but the price of copper is under the pressure due to increased volume of extraction. Positive statistics from Japan, the statements from China about plans to develop trade and economic relations with Australia, couldn’t impact and strengthen the Australian dollar against the Euro. Thus, we can expect that the uptrend will continue in the near future.
the Euro is on the rise this days. It’s strengthened against the USD, as D. Trump’s reforms face with huge resistance in the U.S. Congress and successfully block all possible ways. In addition, the Eurozone, last week received a positive statistic that shows stability and growth in economy of the leading EU countries. The Eurozone PMI in March, achieved the record level for 6 years, reaching 56.7 pips. Record PMI also in Germany and France, separately. All this inspired investors, and EUR now seems more stable amid the USD, despite the official start of Brexit.
Oscillators indicate different signals. but in this situation, it is better to open the deals by the upward trend as Stochastics oscillator also confirmed and indicated good moment to open the deals to BUY.
March 28, 2017 at 1:22 pm #34203
EURJPY Technical Outlook & no more Bears in the Market
Our recent report about EURJPY on March 14, we recommend you selling the pair around 122.50 when it was trading nearly to the downside trend line and we saw the pair has declined more than 300 pips and achieved our targets so today we’ll have a look the same pair again because it maybe change the future trend.
The pair is trading now at 120.10 which is strong support area because it has a trend line which has started on October 21, and it has too a correction percentage 61.8% Fibonacci from the rising wave which started from 118.20 to 122.85 so, we predict to move up a little in this tight area, but the pair is still trading below the SMA50 which is resistance moving level, the MACD is still in sell signal but the Stochastic indicator made accumulation movement and gave us a buy signal which is considered an early signal for us.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis, we can close our sell positions with +320 pips and take a buy order after the pair touched the rising trend line and keep our first target at 120.80 and the second one at the downside trend line at 122.15 that in case the pair still trading above 119.30
This week the market doesn’t have hot news from the EU or Japan so the market will be in poor volatility in the next trading days.
March 23, 2017 at 1:18 pm #33987
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 23.03.2017. The daily chart
[/b]At the end of last week currency pair EUR/USD has broken through the resistance level at 1.07800.
Over the last month, this level was a significant barrier of the price growth. Meanwhile the resistance 1.07800was an upper bound of the price channel 1.07800-1.05500. After breaking through the level the price has fixed above the level and now it shows so called “back testing”.
According to the rules of technical analysis the possible price movement due to the penetration of the resistance line is measured by channel height. So we can see the dollar at 1.08500 in the near future.
Stochastic indicator shows us a clear Buy but the signal line is already included in the overbought zone.
[b]Next few days
[/b]We recommend to open long positions on EUR/USD after the start of the upward movement from support at 1.07800. The point of entry must be sought at hour and half hour timeframes. You can open a buy position after formation of “doji” near the support or other reversal figures.
We recommend to set up S / L order at 1.07500.
March 22, 2017 at 12:04 pm #33942
NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast
After the brief flat trend, the rates of the NZD/USD has returned to the downward trend. The Japanese yen continues to strengthen, while the New Zealand dollar is losing positions against all currencies.
In particular, JPY has got support thanks the published data about the increased volume of exports, which in February rose by 11.3%, while the import grew only by 1.2%. Trade balance, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, was 0,68. These indicators exceeded the forecasts and show good potential for the Japanese economy.
For the NZD we haven’t received any data which could impact the rates and change the situation for NZD. Last week, data about GDP only disappointed investors more because the growth was only 0.4%, against expected growth 0.7%. But today we expect important data from the RNBZ and their decision about the interest rate. It is expected that interest rate won’t be changed and left at 1.75%. Also, on Friday will be information about the volume of exports and imports in New Zealand. Investors are positive in these indicators, in particular, expect a positive trade balance for the first time since June 2016.
Considering the forecasts for the NZD, it is possible to assume that in the evening we expect a price correction as a minimum. The New Zealand dollar will stop falling, and the quotes will go to the resistance line. Oscillators MACD and Stochastics unanimously confirm that now the best moment to open the deals to BUY, upon short-term trading.
- This reply was modified 8 months ago by Super Forex.
March 15, 2017 at 11:57 am #33582
AUD/CAD: fundamental review and forecast
The rates of the AUD/CAD continue in the frames of uptrend which has been formed in the beginning of the year. The canadian dollar is under the pressure of the record low oil prices this year. The price of oil fell for the week from 54 to 48 dollars per barrel for CL/WTI, contrary the forecasts for further stabilization of the market amid reduction of oil production. OPEC continues to say that the countries who joined the Agreement on the reduction of oil abide it in 90%. However, this somehow allows Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. Signals about increasing of oil production coming to the market regularly, and investors react it. In any case, the USA not even going to reduce oil extraction: the number of drilling rigs increases, and hence the volume of oil production will only be increasing. In such conditions, whatever OPEC do, they will not be able to stabilize oil prices.
Positive employment data in Canada, in particular, the increasing of the number of jobs at 15300 against the forecasted 2500, the level of unemployment at 6.6%, against forecasted 6.8%, couldn’t change the situation for CAD. The rapid decline in oil prices was too rapid for the canadian currency.
The Australian dollar feels against the canadian more confident.
The market reacted positively to the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Yesterday, AUD was further supported by encouraging new statistics on the economy of China, where the volume of investment in basic capital was 8.9%, which is a very high and shows investor’s confidence in China’s economy, despite the negative aspects, such as data on the trade deficit of China for the first time in 3 years, and decreasing in exports.
On the AUD/CAD chart, we can’t see the signs for trend reversal. Oscillator MACD is neutral. Stochastics expects a price correction, and offers to open a short deals against the trend. Such deals may be effective upon short-term trading. In addition, the price correction is expected on the oil market, which can support CAD. But upon the medium-term trading it is better in this situation to open the deals to BUY.
- This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Super Forex.
March 9, 2017 at 3:28 pm #33265
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March 15, 2017 at 11:58 am #33583
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March 9, 2017 at 2:04 pm #33261
Technical analysis of the currency pair GBP/USD on 09/03/2017. The daily chart
Over the past month the currency pair GBP/USD had been sideways movement in the frame of long-term downward movement.
Right now, here is probability of formation the market turning point and the continuation of the downward movement. At the moment, the price is trading in the range of 1.2130 – 1.2760
Of course, it would be safer for us to trade after a confirmation about the rebound from the significant level of support at 1.2130. But, unfortunately, not everything goes the way how we want to. The beginning of the continuation of the downward movement most likely already began and we should have time to “jump into the departing train”.
Current situation on the daily chart
During the last two trading weeks currency pair GBP/USD has been showing a high volatility and decreased by 410 points. Price reached the local level of support at 1.2130 and right now is located close to it.
A predictions of the course of events in a next few days
Long positions on GBP/USD is not relevant at the moment and it is probably going to 1.2000.
Considering presence of medium-term downtrend we recommend open short after a penetration of support level at a 1.2770 with target points on profit-taking at 1.2050 и 1.2000.
- This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by Super Forex.
March 2, 2017 at 2:29 pm #32932
Technical analysis of the currency pair AUD/USD on 02/03/2017. The daily chart
Currency pair Australian dollar / US dollar over the past few months shows a clear up trend without any significant corrections. Upward movement started from the beginning of 2017 and at present makes 600 points. However, last week the price reached the 0.7700 resistance level which for almost a year make a serious impact on the price movement.
A large number of times the price bounced back from this level and never being able to overcome.
At the moment, the price reached to the 0.7700 resistance level ones again and two indicators show a confirmation of a signal to sell at the same time – the Stochastic and moving average (14).
Stochastic shows a clear divergence for the last few price peaks, which is also a signal to sell short the AUD / USD.
Also, the price crossed the moving average (14) from top to bottom and successfully entrenched below the line, which also indicates a bearish trend.
We recommend to open short positions on the currency pair AUD / USD with the target points profit taking at levels 0.7570 and 0.7520.
February 28, 2017 at 2:26 pm #32827
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 28/02/2017. The daily chart
Since the beginning of February the rate for the currency pair EUR/USD has started to decline and now approached to the support level – 1.0550.
Level 1.0550 acted as resistance level for the price previously, also the price tested it on both sides and now the price again has approached the level of 1.0550 and the decline has stopped. Last fall to this support was the last week and price successfully strayed up from it.
This week the price again approached to the level of 1.0550 and the last two daily candle closed as a “doji” thereby forming a bottom.
Also today we should pay attention to news coming out of the USA, for today we going to see the publishing of the data about the United States GDP, Consumer Confidence rate and the speech of the President Trump. Usually the output of such data has a significant impact on the market movement.
We recommend expected major news from the USA and if there will not big surprises open the deal to buy after formation of a “double bottom” at the level of 1.0550.
- This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Super Forex.
February 21, 2017 at 2:00 pm #32585
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/СHF on 21/02/2017. The daily chart
From the moment of opening of the market this week currency EUR/СHF pair is trading without significant volatility and practically without any growth or decline. Right now, the price is located at the same level as it was at opening time on Monday – 1.0665. On the graph, we can see a clear upward movement during the last week without any corrections. At the moment, the price is approaching to the support level on the mark 1.0630 and we have all the reasons to expect a «rebound» from it.
Traders should attentively follow the market in next few days and after receiving confirmation about the “rebound” from the level opens long deals with a medium volume.
Stochastic indicator shows the movement of the signal lines in the overbought zone and at the moment we see them crossing of it and the penetration level 20 from the bottom up, that is a signal to buy.
Next few days
Today, it is too early to open long since the bottom of the downward movement was not formed yet and there is a high probability of “false breakouts”. But at the same time, it is too late to open long.
We recommend opening for buy after the bottom formation at the level of 1.0630 with target points of taking profit at the mark 1.0670. Order S/L can be set up by 20-30 points lower than the downward movement bottom.
February 20, 2017 at 1:06 pm #32508
USD/JPY: Technical Overview during Dollar Holiday
The US dollar rose last Friday against most major currencies ahead of the President’s Day long weekend which would end today, but the Japanese yen was stronger than the dollar, so the pair recorded a new low last week at 112.55.
The USD/JPY pair is trading now at 113.10 after it declined to the lowest price last week at 112.55 to retest the broken trend line and rose back again. Now the pair is trading between the demand zone at 111.80 and the resistance area at the SMA at 113.32 so we have to wait for the pair break the SMA and close H4 candle above it to buy the pair. The RSI indicator is giving us a buy signal and so does the stochastic indicator.
The Next Few Days
Based on this analysis we can buy the pair once it breaks the SMA and trades above it – we should keep our first target around the previous top at 114.70 and the second target at 161.8% Fibonacci from the last down wave from 114.92 to 112.59, so our extension percentage will be at 116.20, unless the pair breaks the trend line again and trades below it, in which case we would sell the pair to 109.40 at the 50% fibo from the uptrend wave which started on September 27.
We have to keep an eye out for any economic news that may effect the market such as the FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday.
February 16, 2017 at 11:23 am #32400
Technical analysis of the currency pair AUD/USD on 16/02/2017. The daily chart
During this week the price of the currency pair AUD/USD has risen slightly more than 130 points and came close to the support level at 0.7700.
If we consider US dollar in a global market we can note that price for this currency increases in relation to all the main quotes but nevertheless now we see a pause in the growth and soon we expect a correction against the general uptrend.
Recently the price has already approached several times to the level of support at 0.7700 and all the times it was an insurmountable wall for the currency pair and the price could not break it.
Comparing the Stochastic indicator chart with price graph we can see a clear divergence which was formed last Friday. Such trading signal on the daily chart and with and rising market it is quite strong signal to sell the US dollar and it cannot be ignored.
Next few days
Considering the overall situation in the market for the US dollar, price closeness to a significant support level 0.7700 and the presence of divergence in the graph we have all the signals for the opening of sales for AUD/USD.
The general trend is still increasing but today there is the most favorable situation to play on the rollback of the price.
During this week, we are likely to see a decrease to at least 0.7610 or even further to 0.7500.
February 14, 2017 at 5:44 pm #32291
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 14/02/2017. The daily chart
The January increase for the currency pair EUR / USD was completed and now we are back into the medium downtrend. From the beginning of February, the price dropped 250 points and is now trading at around 1.0635. The closest support level for the euro will be the support of 1.0550.
Earlier in early February the price of successful break below the moving average 14 and fixed below the line therefore determining the trend at the moment as the downward.
Chart of Stochastic indicator also indicates a decrease. Two signal lines are directed down and located in the overbought zone.
Considering the overall picture for the EUR / USD, we can confidently expect a further decline at least to the support 1.0550 and possibly even lower. The correct decision will be to open short positions down to support 1.0550 and after that make further analysis of the situation in case of breakdown or rebound from this level.
When you play the short you should pay attention to the volume level. If volumes will continue to grow with an approximation to the level of support level, then most likely we will see a breakdown and a further decline. But if the volume will decrease, the best solution is to take profit and open a new position after making new analysis.
February 10, 2017 at 2:44 pm #32112
[b]AUD/CAD: short review and forecast
Since the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar began a steady growth, which led to the formation of a new uptrend. it was unexpected by many investors who think the value of the AUD is overvalued, taking into account recession in the Australian economy, in particular the decreasing of the business activity index to 5, and decreasing of the share’s prices of mining companies in Australia. Mainly, the reason for the growth of the Australian currency was the canadian dollar, which during this time did not exert any pressure on the AUD. Canada’s economy is stable, though it doesn’t show some growth. But unstable oil market, the risks for further decreasing in oil prices and the USD rates make pressure on the CAD value.
Despite worries about overvalued Australian dollar, it looks better enough and keeps growing. This confirmed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, who believes the slowdown in growth is a temporary and expects an improvement in economic indicators. So at the meeting, the RBA left interest rates unchanged, thereby maintaining the currency at a high level. Also, positively impact has had information about the growth of China’s economy and it has good perspectives for increasing export volumes.
At this time, the oscillators MACD and Stochastics are neutral. The most optimal in this situation is to open the deals on the trend, upon medium-term trading.
February 9, 2017 at 12:11 pm #32047
EUR/USD: Time to Trade & Make a Profit
This year we are likely going to have a lot of political events in the European Union, which would make the EUR/USD the most highly volatile trading instrument on the market. There are going to be elections in Germany and France, the results of which can have the same economic impact as the results of the Brexit vote or Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the United States. It is expected that the election campaign in Germany and France can only increase the chances of victory of the opposition forces which promise to change radically the political and economic strategy of their countries. One of the presidential candidates in France, Marie Le pen, for example, intends to withdraw the country from the Eurozone and to raise the question about a possible withdrawal from the EU, which are some of the most radical changes at all.
Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the markets will work in the conditions of political uncertainty and react to all statements by politicians during the election campaign. Additionally, the policies of Donald Trump will only increase the volatility of major currency pairs. This year we can expect with a certainty many trend reversals and many extremely high spikes.
This process begins now. You can easily make 200-1000% profit now if you act quickly! All you need to do is follow news and the election process, and try to correctly guess the outcome. We would be right there with you, every step of the way with our analyses of major instruments and potential opportunities. Trading on Forex has never been so interesting – make a deposit now to take advantage of the volatility and quickly make a profit!
January 31, 2017 at 11:22 am #31579
Technical analysis of the currency pair USD / CHF on 31/01/2017. The daily chart
The price of the currency pair USD / CHF continues to decline and the yesterday tested the support level 0.9950. This fall began in mid-December last year and since then the price has dropped almost 400 points. During the last week price has been approached to the 0.9950 level several times and here again, the price came close to this mark, and closed above the level.
Earlier 0.9950 level acted as resistance to the price through which the price could not get through for a long time. Now we expect the same effect from a given level only as of the level of support. Therefore, we can expect prices rebound from 0.9950 support.
Given the fact that the overall trend still is downward and indicator gives us sell signal transactions with the rebound from the level should be opened quite carefully. It is necessary to wait for confirmation of the rebound of at least two candles and only after this to open the transaction for the purchase.
Next few days
We recommend to open the transaction on buy after a rebound from 0.9950 support the target points of profit taking will be the moving average line (14) on the daily chart, as well as the level of 1.0060.
January 26, 2017 at 10:25 am #31353
Daily analysis for the currency pair EUR/GBP on 26.01.2017.
Currency EUR / GBP pair continued to decline and during this week, has already dropped for almost 200 points. At the moment, the price of the euro declining versus all major quotes and most likely this will continue at least until the end of this month and possibly even further.
As we predicted earlier the intersection of the price and simple moving average (14) on a daily chart was an excellent signal for sell.
Even given the fact that now is forming a fairly steep downtrend and there is a high probability of correction, sales EUR / GBP is still promising.
Schedule Stochastic indicator to be in oversold zone, indicating a clear advantage of the sellers.
Next few days
We expect a continued of the decline for EUR / GBP at least until the end of January. Target points of profit taking on sales will be the support level of 0.8300.
There is a possibility of formation of correction against the downward movement so given this fact, the most favorable is opening of the position after the correction is over.
By calculating the depth of the correction, we recommend to orient on the Fibonacci correction levels – 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%.
January 24, 2017 at 12:18 pm #31215
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 24/01/2017. The daily chart
On the background of the general weakness of the US dollar currency pair EUR / USD continues to rise and now has reached the level of 1.0780. The growth started from the very first days of January and continues until today.
On Monday 23 January, the price approached the level of resistance at 1.0800. The last time the price was in near the mark is in the middle of December 2016, that time price had been bounced of the resistance 1.0800 which marked the beginning of a serious decline.
Given the general downtrend for the EUR / USD we can expect a repetition of such a scenario and a second rebound is quite likely to be happened.
The earlier opened long positions most desirable to close today at the market price.
Stochastic indicator shows an upward movement and the signals lines is located in overbought zone.
As a confirmation of such scenario will be the signal of the intersection of the signal lines and exit of the overbought zone from top down.
Next few days
We recommend opening the deal to sell with a given currency pair while receiving confirmation of the rebound from the level 1.0800.
As a confirmation, will be performing a few daily candles closed below this level.
A targets for the price decrease will be 1.0650 and 1.0600.
Note: This article is provided in the form of recommendations for trading and SuperForex Company is not responsible for the result of transactions made by you based on this analysis.
Please be aware that CFD and FX trading on margin carry high levels of risk. Traders should ensure they understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade.
- This reply was modified 10 months ago by Super Forex.
January 19, 2017 at 1:13 pm #31025
The daily chart of EUR/GBP currency pair 19.01.2017.
After a substantial decline on Monday 17/01/17 Currency EUR / GBP pair is back in the frame of the price channel 0.8700 – 0.8340 and yesterday’s daily candle closed below this level. Movement on Tuesday was about 170 points and was due to the overall growth of the British currency. The price of the British pound was also increased against all major quotations.
So far it is difficult to assert unambiguously about the role of level 0.8700 will it be a significant obstacle for the price for the price or not. But in the case of back-testing of it from the inside of the channel and rebound from it traders will be good reason to play on the slide.
Comparing the Stochastic indicator chart with price graph we can see a clear divergence which was formed last Friday. Such trading signal on the daily chart and with and rising market it is quite strong signal to sell Euro and it cannot be ignored.
Signal lines of Stochastic indicator has been crossed and demonstrates a clear buy signal.
[b]Next few days
[/b]Considering the overall situation in the market for the Euro and price closeness to a significant resistance level at 0.8700 and the presence of divergence in the graph we have all the signals for the opening of sales for EUR/GBP.
The general trend is still increasing but today there is the most favorable situation to play on the rollback of the price.
During this week, we are likely to see a decrease to at least 0.8575 or even further to 0.8500.
We recommend to open sell position on EUR/GBP if the price goes below than 0.8650 with a target points for profit taking at 0.8575. Orders S/L we need to set up at 30-50 points above the enter point.
This article is provided in the form of recommendations for trading and SuperForex Company is not responsible for the result of transactions made by you based on this analysis.
Please be aware that CFD and FX trading on margin carry high levels of risk. Traders should ensure they understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade.
- This reply was modified 10 months ago by Super Forex.
January 10, 2017 at 11:48 am #30545
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR / GBP on 10/01/2017. The daily chart
On Monday 09/01/17 currency pair EUR / GBP continued its grow by forming big rising candle with by 100 points. Also, according to the results of yesterday’s session the resistance level 0.8700 has been broken. Price was able to pass this mark and consolidate above the resistance level.
We are not expected major news from the Eurozone today so that the news background will be unusually quiet.
The graph of Stochastic indicator shows the clear upward trend.
Next few days
Break of the resistance level 0.8700 and fixing prices above indicates potential buy for
EUR / GBP.
However, given the propensity of this currency pair to form false breakouts and the mixed signals from the indicator we can conclude that the opening of sale should be made only after receiving confirmation of the breakdown and fixing of the price above the resistance level at least with two candles.
The immediate goal to capture profits on above 0.8700 will be the level 0.8900.
January 6, 2017 at 10:19 am #30392
Analysis on the currency pair EUR/JPY
Today, all the world is waiting the jobs report from the USA after the Fed raised the interest rate in Dec 2016 for the second time after 12 months from the first one, and it’s expected that this report will effect on all symbols even EURJPY which we’ll analyze today.
The EURJPY currency pair is trading now around 123.00 key resistance area which is in the middle zone between 38.2 and 50% fibo from the correction wave which started after the Brexit so, it maybe raise to 125 and back to down again the medium term trend but in the short term we’re expecting that will touch the upper limit of the wedge and back again, but the SMA 50’s slope is horizontal that’s mean the pair don’t have the power to resume the movement.
The RSI and Stochastic indicators still giving us buy signs so we’ll wait for the sell signal to enter the market.
The Next Few Days
We can sell the pair when we see it around 123.50 and make our first target at 121.90 and if the pair broke the wedge we have to sell it again to 119.00, but on the other side if it broke it up we can buy it to 125.
We have to be careful from the Non-Farm report today from the USA at 13:30 GMT Especially when we listened one of the statements from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday was the possibility of unemployment undershooting the level at which the central bank believes it should settle at in the long term.
January 5, 2017 at 1:42 pm #30337
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/СHF on 05/01/2017. The daily chart
During the past two weeks the currency pair EUR / CHF continues to move sideways and has formed maximum at 30.12.16 – 1.0760. However, last trading week closed with a couple of black candlestick with a big body and it is contrary to growth opportunities.
The first trading days of the current week was held under the auspices of the bulls and now we can see a return to growth.
Price has not been able to go below support 1.0690 by forming a rebound from this level.
A few weeks ago the price has already been successfully beat off from support level 1.0690. After obtaining several signals from other tools and indicators we can confidently expect the beginning of growth.
Next few days
Currency pair EUR / CHF is already moving sideways for a long time and at the moment we have a lot of reasons to expect the test of the upper boundary of the channel at 1.0790. However, given the resistance level at 1.0750 there is the probability forming of the peak and further decreases to the bottom of support 1.0690.
After after overcoming of local maximum at 1.0750 we can consider to open a long deals with targert points by 1.0790.
January 4, 2017 at 12:55 pm #30188
USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.
At the moment, the market a calm due to New year’s holidays. Market activity will be restored after completion of all holidays for at least a week. But by the end of the current week we expect important data from the US about the oil reserves, the unemployment level, which may slightly revive the market.
On the chart of the USD/SEK we can see that the rates are in the frames of the uptrend, but there are perspectives of a trend change. Since November, has forming a flat trend. The support line has shifted and now it’s in the horizontal position. Also on the chart we can see a trend reversal figure, however, at the moment the preconditions for a trend reversal is not enough. On the one hand, USD has not yet reached its peak and may continue to grow and strengthen in the new year, on the other hand, there are no preconditions for the strengthening of the SEK. The growth course of the Sweden economy has slowed, but the Riksbank decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged on a very low level.
Oscillator MACD shows a signal to open buy deals. This is the right decision upon medium-term trading.
January 3, 2017 at 10:04 am #30081
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 03/01/2017. The daily chart
Currency pair EUR / USD continues to move sideways during the whole last week.
It should be reminded that not so long time ago the price has broken through the major support level 1.0520 and the price successfully fixed below it. Then it was back testing of this support but in time of testing there was a sharp surge in activity therefore the price has risen almost to 1.0670 but then during the same day again fell below the 1.0520 support.
Considering the overall picture of the graph EUR / USD where we can emphasize a clear downward trend and the presence of such sell signals as: break through the price channel boundaries, back testing of it we can expect that further decline in this currency pair will continue.
Schedule Stochastic indicator turned inside the neutral zone and demonstrates the downward movement.
The following points to reduce the EUR will be the levels 1.0200 and 1.0180.
We recommend opening the deal to sell with the average lots and placing orders S / L above 1.0650.
December 31, 2016 at 1:23 pm #30016
SuperForex Company wishes all traders a Happy New Year!
The next year, we wish you to have only profit trades. We hope that the spirit of the holiday will bring you closer with your loved ones and fill your heart with kindness.
December 28, 2016 at 10:13 am #29902
Crude oil (CL/WTI): review and forecast for the near month
Oil prices for the last few months were under the influence of the USD rates and events related with OPEC and making of the Agreement on reduction of the crude oil extraction. Implementation of Agreement should begin since January 2017, so the market is awaiting whether the Agreement will be executed by all countries-exporters. Investors remain optimistic for a while and the prices continues increasing. In particular, yesterday the price of oil reached a 17- month high.
In the near future, the prices can vary, depending on the implementation of the Agreement on reduction of oil extraction. In January, the market will be awaiting information about the volume of oil production, and only toward the end of the month investors will be able to draw certain conclusions. It’s not cost to expect significant price spikes until this moment – probably the rates will be in the frames of the current uptrend. The price can reach the level of 55-56 per barrel for the Light sweet/WTI.
Oscillators MACD/Stochastics show a signal to open short deals, but at the moment, trading against the trend is not the best decision. It’s be better to open the deals to BUY because there’re no enough preconditions for a trend reversal and the prices have not reached yet the real maximum.
December 28, 2016 at 6:36 am #29882
Please share your expectations for EURUSD and GBPUSD for 2017.
December 28, 2016 at 10:15 am #29903
December 27, 2016 at 3:40 pm #29840
Technical analysis of the currency pair USD / CHF on 27/12/2016. The daily chart
Over the past seven trading days, the pair USD / CHF is moving sideways after the formation of peak at 1.0340. The price has been approached to resistance level 1.0340 for a third time but was never able to overcome it. Last time the price was in the area of the mark 1.0340 in November 2015 after which began a long sideways movement where we are today.
The prospect of breaking through the 1.0340 resistance for the pair USD / CHF is large enough.
We can see it on the fundamental data from America and Europe and by the help of technical analysis on the graph as well.
Most likely we will see two scenarios of further developments for USD / CHF:
Scenario #1: Break of 1.0340 resistance and exit from the sideways movement.
In this scenario, the transaction to buy should be opened after the formation of the confirmation of the breakout with a few candles up.
The objectives of the profit will be levels 1.0430 and 1.0450.
Scenario #2: Rebound from 1.0340 and resistance and reduced within the side channel.
Now the price has suspended its growth near resistance 1.0340 and began to form a correctional movement.
In case of breaking the support level of 1.0180 the price is likely to continue to decline within channel and when this scenario, the sales will be relevant below the 1.0180 with target points of profit taking at 1.0085 and 09950.
December 26, 2016 at 3:20 pm #29794
GOLD (XAU/USD): Review & Monthly Forecast
Last month the downward trend on the Gold’s chart intensified strongly. The strengthening of the dollar has brought down the price for Gold. The strong dollar became the most attractive tool for investors, which is why demand for metals didn’t increase significantly. The rates have decreased until the levels from January 2016. At the moment, the value of the Gold is $1130 – $200 less than what it was just two-three months ago.
Now the drop in the value of Gold has stopped for a week and has kept this level. The incresing demand in Russia, India and China has a positive impact of Gold prices. When the price of the yellow metal is at a low level countries tend to buy it in larger quantities, but this has led to a strong consolidation of prices at the current level. Anyway, it’s not worth it expecting further rapid decreases in the prices as before.
On the chart we can see that the quotes are in the downtrend which was formed in September, but we can note that the resistance line is strongly shifted to the bottom. Probably in the next few months a flat trend can form, but it is too early to speak about the formation of a new trend. The gold will continue to be under the pressure of the strong U.S dollar, which will remain more attractive for investors in the near future. The price can decrease again. Oscillators appear neutral. Given that there are no prerequisites for the growth of gold prices, the most optimal move is to open short positions on the trend in medium-term trading.
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