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Tuesday 28 February Day Close Analysis: Trump Impact
28/02/2017
Tuesday 28 February Day Close Analysis: Trump Impact

Tuesday 28 February Day close analysis, eyes are on what President Trump will disclose today.  He has indicated already on the different areas he will speak about. What can the markets expect and how to trade the different currency pairs?

AtoZForex, 28 February – As  February ends, March starts with the key note speech from President Trump addressing the US nation.  Currency traders will be monitoring each word uttered.  Will the Asian session volatility increase? What is the impact on the greenback? (Hint: There is uncertainty as to how markets will react, as traders will be scrutinise each word uttered.  Trade cautiously).

With markets truly focused on what will or will not be disclosed by President Trump. A lot has been written ahead of the address to the US nation.

Tuesday 28 February Day Close Analysis

EURUSD Day Close Analysis

The EUR closed not as strongly but positively for the second day running, after rebounding last week from the 1.0492 level at the 38.2% custom Fibonacci retracement zone.

Current status from a technical perspective
On the Daily chart both the daily 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma below the 100sma. Give us the bigger picture trend bias to the down side.

Tuesday 28 February Day Close Analysis: Trump Impact

Day Close for EURUSD D1 (click to zoom in)

Hourly Chart
Moving Averages
 – Both the 20sma and 100sma are sloping up with the 20sma above the 100sma.
MACD –MACD histogram and signal line are above the neutral line
RSI – RSI is just above the 50 level.
Key levels – EUR tested the 1.0630 psychological level just below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone.  As mentioned last Friday, the pair tested the the 1.0620-15 level three times already in the last three days. Each time it has failed to break cleanly away from this resistance level.

GBPUSD Day Close Analysis

The GBP closed negatively for the third day running. The pair has been trading in a very narrow range between the two 23.6% and 50% custom Fibonacci retracement zones. Trading has been choppy at the intraday level, with no indication of direction. The overall higher time frame bias remains on the bearish side.

Current status from a technical perspective
On the Daily chart both the daily 20sma and 100sma are sloping down with the 20sma above the 100sma. Price is sandwiched between the two moving averages.

Tuesday 28 February Day Close Analysis: Trump Impact

Day Close for GBPUSD D1 (click to zoom in) 

Hourly Chart
Moving Averages
 – Both the 20sma and 100sma are sloping down. The 20sma is below the 100sma
MACD – MACD histogram and signal line are below the neutral level
RSI – RSI is below the 50 level and touching the 60 level.
Key levels –  Price Action is still choppy overall for this pair, trading this pair is a challenge. Defining key levels is also a challenge. However, read on.   

Possible Impact of Trump Speech

If the markets view the address to the US nation lacking in detail, we could see a negative impact on the markets. If we see equities slide, expect the US Dollar to depreciate against the major currencies.  Whilst we would expect Gold to appreciate. For traders of the EURUSD watch the movement on S&P500 index.  We briefly look at the possible impact on EURUSD and GBPUSD.

EURUSD
Bullish view – If we see price clearly break above the 1.0633 level, our initial target would be at 1.0670-75 level then at 1.0760-70 level with an interim resistance level at 1.0715-20 level.  A retest of the 1.0580 level just above the 61.8% custom Fibonacci zone is possible.
Bearish view – a clear break below 1.0575 level, we would see price move to test the 1.0495-90 level, with a further downside move towards the key support level at 1.0440.

GBPUSD
Bullish view – The pair would need to clearly break above the 1.2570 level, our focus would turn to the 1.2690 resistance level. We cannot rule out a further upside move towards the 1.2815 level at the 10.0% custom Fibonacci retracement zone.
Only a clean break above the 1.2815-20 level would we lean on the bullish side.
Bearish view – A clear break below the psychological level of 1.2400 at the 50.0% custom Fibonacci level could see the pair move towards the 1.2275-70 level . This is near the strong 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.  Afurther move downwards to the 1.2115-10 level cannot be ruled out.

Please use correct risk and money management in line with your account size and draw down plan. These are not recommendations, you must carry out your own due diligence. 

Think we missed something? Let us know in the comments section below.

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